It's nearly that time again and the election will be here before we know it, meaning that the seniors at Mountain Brook High School will be attempting to predict the outcome of the this year's presidential election. This is a HuGe assignment so get a jump on your peers and head to the library soon!
The Mountian Brook High School Library has set aside a large number of books to help you in your research as well as
putting together a website with a ton of online resources you may use.
It's a looooooong assingment, but here are the particulars:
AMERICAN GOVERNMENT PROJECT: 2008
PROGNOSTICATION RESEARCH AND “CONVENTION”
Prognostication, by definition, is a forecast or prediction. Government students will be responsible for a prognostication of the Presidential Election of 2008. The project will culminate in a day long presentation to be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, at which time the research conclusions will be reported and the results will be tallied. Students will work both on an individual and on a group basis prior to November 4 to gather and analyze information on the State assigned by the teacher. Groups are assigned by the teacher, and each group will be responsible for a notebook containing information and a prognosis for each State assigned to that group.
I. Group Notebooks
A. Each group must secure a three-ring binder (recommended 2” to 2-1/2”) in which all information will be organized.
B. Each notebook must be divided into separate sections as indicated below in the research assignment. Each of the major divisions and subdivisions must be separated and identified by a tab divider.
C. Cite your sources (using the correct current format from the MBHS Library) for all research information. Give the source beside each section of information.
D.***Due November 4, 2008 (except where otherwise noted)***
II. Assignment
A. Write a 500 word summary of the economic, geographic, and demographic characteristics of your State.
1.***Due Friday, September 5***
B. Demographics
1. Define demographics.
2. This section must include the following information, using Census 2000, or more recent estimates. State this consistently in either absolute numbers or in percentages (or both).
a. race
b. religion
c. registered voters by age grouping
d. voting age population by age grouping
e. voting age population by White, African-American, Hispanic (# and %)
f. registered voters by party
g. occupation
h. educational levels
i. union membership
j. per capita income
k. persons below the poverty level (be sure to include the poverty level cut-off)
l. unemployment rates currently
m. population distribution by rural (or farm) vs. urban or urban/surburban
n. national origin/ethnic groups for groups of the State’s population representing 1% or more of the population; give a listing without numbers for any others
o. military population
p. number of soldiers deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan
3. Based on the information in THIS section, who is more likely to win the election? Briefly
explain your answer, citing specific examples to support your position.
4. ***Due date, Friday, September 26***
C. Analysis of past elections
1. Voter turnout in 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 (specify whether this is a percentage of registered voters or of the voting age population)
2. Vote by party in presidential elections since 1948
3. Vote margin in the 2004 Presidential Election (both # and %)
4. Party affiliation of the State Legislatures 1982-2008
5. Party affiliation of the Governors 1982-2008
6. Party affiliation of the U. S. House of Representatives members 1982-2008
7. Party affiliation of the U. S. Senators 1982-2008
8. Based on the information in THIS section, who is more likely to win the election? Briefly explain your answer, citing specific examples to support your position.
9. ***Due Wednesday, October 22***
D. Cut out 1 (one) one-sided visual (approx. 22” x 28”) representing your State to use to display in the upstairs or downstairs commons areas of the Social Studies wing. Choose something that in some way illustrates your State.
1.***Due Friday, October 31
E. Campaign Information (beginning August 1, 2008)
1. communication from relatives, personal friends, etc. from specific States (optional)
2. poll results (both national and State) in chronological order
3. “convention bounce” and “debate bounce” in articles and/or TV analysis
4. major issues in the campaign
5. summaries of relevant magazine and newspaper articles, internet sources, and TV programs
(give channel, date, time, and program title).
a. You must include a copy of the articles and internet articles with citation information.
b. Please copy only that which applies directly to your group (do not waste paper).
c. Highlight the articles to demonstrate that you read them. The highlighting must make sense.
d. Organize this information chronologically and neatly.
6. BLOG’s can be a valuable source of opinion-based information, but be very careful in your
use of them.
7. ***Due September 5, September 26, October 10, October 24, and November 4, 2004 .
F. Analysis of debates, due 3 days after each debate.
G. Prognosis: After carefully studying all of the information, the GROUP must forecast how their individual State will vote for President. These predictions MUST be supported by an essay discussing at least 5 (five) major determinants (based on the above data). Tie this discussion to the specific issues in the campaign and the candidates positions on those issues. To do this
section effectively, you must go back to II, sections A – F and tie the research information
together. (Determinants = what causes something to happen the way that it does.)
ISSUES tied to DEMOGRAPHPICS, DEMOGRAPHICS, DEMOGRAPHICS.
H. Prepare a 3 to 5 minute Power Point summary of the reasons for your prognostication and a single sheet (2 copies) rationale for your prognostication. The Power Point summary and the single sheet summary will be given and turned in on November 4.
III. At the end of the project, list the specific contributions to the project made by each member of the group.
I. – III. represent the group aspect of this project. There are some individual activities you can do to impact your individual grade.
IV. To strengthen your project, learning experience and individual grade potential you are encouraged to complete additional activities and research. Some suggestions are listed below. These can be individual or group-based. They will be graded and credited to you accordingly.
Submit your proposal in writing, and get your teacher’s approval of these additional activities.
Approval for additional “stuff” must be gained no later than Friday, October 3 or Monday,
October 27.
A. volunteering and assisting the campaigns of recognized, active candidates
B. volunteering and assisting recognized special interest groups in getting their message out
For A & B you must have:
1. Verification of the nature of the work, the dates and hours worked, and an official’s signature
on their letterhead.
2. You will also need to write a one-page essay of your reactions to this activity and what you
learned about the election process through this work.
C. serving effectively and successfully on one of the committees for planning and executing the political assembly and the November 4 presentation
RECAP OF THE DUE DATES:
September 5, Friday - State summary theme (II. A.)
September 5, Friday - Poll Results and Article Summaries (II. E. 2 & 5)
September 26, Friday - Poll Results and Article Summaries (II. E. 2 & 5)
September 26, Friday - Demographics (II. B.)
October 3, Friday - Approval for additional “stuff”
October 10, Friday - Poll Results and Article Summaries (II. E. 2 & 5)
October 22, Wednesday - Analysis of Past Elections (II. C.)
October 24, Friday - Poll Results and Article Summaries (II. E. 2 & 5)
October 27, Monday - Approval for additional “stuff”
October 31, Friday - Standards (II. D.)
November 4, Tuesday - Poll Results and Article Summaries (II. E. 2 & 5) – in notebook
Group Notebook (I.)
3 to 5 minute Power Point summary of the reasons for your prognostication and a single sheet summary (2 copies) of that rationale for your prognostication – separate from Notebook
Good Luck!
htw
